The past year witnessed an intense battle for market share, with companies willing to incur losses for a decimal point advantage. Even industry leaders like Tesla and BYD engaged in price wars. This Darwinian competition burst the industry bubble with lightning speed.
However, we should not lament this price war.
Today, the market no longer believes in empty promises but instead favors those who can generate independent revenue and leverage economies of scale. Only companies that have endured the fiercest of battles can develop the resilience and produce superior products.
After a decade of development and a year-long organizational restructuring, XPeng Automotive's accumulated capabilities are starting to bear fruit in its financial statements.
In Q4 2023, XPeng achieved a milestone with quarterly deliveries reaching 60,000 units, and its gross margin turned positive at 6.2%. In the first three quarters of last year, XPeng's gross margin was negative, but in Q4, it surged by 8.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Total revenue also reached RMB 13.05 billion, up 154% year-over-year and 53% quarter-over-quarter.
Crucially, XPeng achieved positive operating cash flow for the full year of 2023 for the first time. By the end of last year, XPeng held RMB 45.7 billion in cash, a net increase of over RMB 9.2 billion quarter-over-quarter. Its positive free cash flow exceeded RMB 6 billion.
With this financial cushion, XPeng's strategic options have expanded. It released a second brand, tapped into a new down-market segment, implemented an AI large model, and embarked on international expansion.
XPeng's turnaround in 2023 was a rapid recovery from its low point.
Profitability Enhanced
The turnaround in gross margin is not merely a matter of cutting expenses or increasing revenue. It reflects improved operational efficiency and the maturation of XPeng's products and commercial capabilities. This is key for XPeng to navigate the industry cycle and thrive in the future.
April 2022 marked a turning point for XPeng when it launched the SEPA 2.0 Fulu (meaning "soaring") architecture. This is China's only mass-produced integrated front and rear aluminum die-casting platform with an 800V high-voltage SiC (silicon carbide) platform.
With this new architecture, XPeng's new vehicle development cycle has been reduced by 20%, and the platform's component commonality rate has reached 80%. The 800V XPOWER's overall efficiency can reach 92%, surpassing the 91.4% achieved by leading American electric vehicle brands.
In short, it delivers both cost reduction and efficiency gains.
XPeng G6 is the first strategic model based on the Fulu architecture. Thanks to the advantages of platform-based development, its starting price of RMB 209,900 has taken the price war to a whole new level.
The RMB 250,000-class electric vehicle market is the most fiercely competitive price segment, with Tesla, BYD, and traditional giants fighting tooth and nail for market share. Battery costs are also volatile, and the舆论环境moreover, is brutal. Without Tesla's brand halo or BYD's cost advantage from manufacturing its own batteries, it is difficult to control costs in the short term.
Sales figures have vindicated XPeng's approach. Since its launch in June 2022, the XPeng G6 has seen its deliveries climb steadily, repeatedly setting monthly sales records of over 20,000 units. It has also captured the sales crown in the RMB 200,000-250,000 pure electric SUV market.
小鹏汽车第四季度业绩强劲，毛利率转正
Xpeng Motors (XPEV) 的全新 G9 SUV 上市后销量大幅攀升，推动其在品牌中的销量占比稳步上升。这也有助于小鹏提高其平均售价，第四季度平均售价达到 20.3 万元人民币（约 2.95 万美元），环比增长约 7,000 元人民币（约 1,015 美元）。
第四季度汽车毛利率达到 4.1%，而 2023 年第三季度为负 6.1%，环比提高了 10 个百分点以上。
在第四季度财报电话会议上，小鹏汽车董事长兼 CEO 何小鹏表示，第四季度总收入环比增长，主要受 G6 和 G9 销量快速增长的推动。借助平台化研发和规模效应，小鹏汽车有望降低供应链和制造成本，加快实现到 2024 年底将 BOM 成本降低 25% 的目标。
X9 销量攀升，拉动毛利率
今年 1 月，小鹏 X9 正式上市，作为小鹏体系中最昂贵的车型，何小鹏透露，该车在上市两个月内交付了约 4,000 辆，预计 3 月和 4 月的销量将环比大幅增长。
第一季度给出的收入指引为 58 亿至 60 亿元人民币（约 8.38 亿至 8.68 亿美元），结合 2.1 万至 2.25 万辆的销量指引，这意味着平均单车价格将超过 23 万元人民币（约 3.34 万美元），高于去年第四季度。显然，X9 销量的增长将不可避免地拉动小鹏汽车的汽车毛利率。
总体来看，小鹏汽车在一定程度上实现了品牌向上。
成本优化，单车成本下降
与此同时，随着碳酸锂成本的不断下降，以及内部组织架构等因素带来的较大成本优化空间，小鹏汽车的单车成本也在下降。根据财报，小鹏汽车的单车成本环比下降约 1 万元人民币（约 1,453 美元），至 19.1 万元人民币（约 2.76 万美元）。
由此，小鹏汽车毛利转正的路径非常明确：利用平台化优势摊薄成本，借助高端车型提升售价，同时内部推进架构调整，叠加行业原材料降本的自然规律，实现正向现金流。
规模致胜
毛利率转正只是一个开始。对于一家汽车制造商来说，如何才能蓬勃发展？
规模、规模还是规模。
特斯拉的目标是在 2030 年实现 2000 万辆的销量，即使是高举高打的蔚来也准备推出第二个品牌“乐动”，以占据价格较低的市场。
“我们不会以短期和较小的规模增长作为布局未来的出发点。”
何小鹏在电话会议上直言，未来的竞争不仅要看短期的规模份额，更要考验车企在高质量且高效率的规模化、智能化、国际化等多个维度上是否持续领先。
面向未来，小鹏汽车开启了“集团式车海”战略。
未来三年，小鹏汽车将推出 10 多款全新车型，加上配套的全球化左右舵车型和升级改款车型，SOP 的车型总数将达到近 30 个。这一数字意味着小鹏汽车已摆脱初创企业思维，开始向全品类、全球化发展。
Like NIO, XPeng is launching a new sub-brand. CEO He Xiaopeng announced that they will unveil a new brand targeting the 100,000-150,000 RMB price range at the Beijing Auto Show next month. The brand will focus on developing AI-powered vehicles for young consumers and is expected to be a major hit in the A-class pure electric vehicle market this year.
This new model will primarily target the C-end market. XPeng Co-President Gu Hongdi stated during the earnings call that MONA aims to contribute 10,000 units in monthly sales, a volume that would be considered a great success internally.
Unlike the 200,000 RMB+ market, the 100,000-150,000 RMB new energy vehicle segment faces greater challenges. Companies like Tesla and Huawei have attempted to enter this market, but high battery and intelligent driving system costs have made profitability difficult. Huawei's Yu Chengdong recently admitted that their intelligent driving system is too expensive, stating that "only vehicles priced above 300,000 RMB can use our system and still be profitable."
He Xiaopeng acknowledges the market's challenges, emphasizing the difficulty of creating a well-rounded and profitable vehicle within this price range that also offers advanced intelligent driving capabilities. He believes it requires a company with strong economies of scale and systemization capabilities.
"Today, we are finally ready," he said. He believes that AI-driven intelligent vehicle technology and architecture innovation are no longer medium- to long-term goals but are already underway, with AI-defined vehicles centered around autonomous driving.
At the 2022 1024 Tech Day event, XPeng announced that its AI large model would be integrated into vehicles. Now, they have a clear timeline: mass production of the AI intelligent driving large model in the second quarter of this year.
In early 2023, Xpeng began rolling out XNGP to all Max edition users, resulting in an active user penetration rate of 83% in February. As XNGP adoption grows, He Xiaopeng has set a KPI for the team:
To benchmark the driving experience of XNGP in key regions, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, to match that of Waymo's Robotaxi in San Francisco.
With the launch of the new sub-brand, the hardware costs of XNGP will likely come down significantly. He Xiaopeng indicated that the main Xpeng brand will release a new model in the second half of the year, and "starting with this new model, the hardware costs of XNGP will be reduced by 50%."
In addition to the domestic market, Xpeng is also seeking to replicate its scale advantage internationally.
He Xiaopeng announced plans to significantly accelerate the expansion of overseas operations. In the second quarter, the global left-hand drive version of the G6 will be launched, followed by the right-hand drive version in the second half of the year. Through partnerships with premium distributors, Xpeng aims to enter European, Middle Eastern, Southeast Asian, and Commonwealth countries.
The most frequently mentioned person during the conference call was Wang Fengying.
As an experienced automotive veteran, Wang Fengying has brought about transformative changes since joining Xpeng. She has not only contributed a mature distribution system but also extensive dealer resources. Wang Fengying has received high praise, including from He Xiaopeng himself.
Last September, under Wang Fengying's leadership, Xpeng launched the "Jupiter Project," a channel reform initiative. The goal was to phase out inefficient direct-operated stores and expand the network of dealership stores. This innovative approach aimed not only to reduce costs but also to enhance sales capabilities and establish a more effective marketing channel system.
渠道升级
何小鹏 disclosed that in 2023, they completed a round of channel upgrades, eliminating over 130 underperforming stores while onboarding 160+ top-performing dealership partners. This expansion has brought the company into 40 new lower-tier cities.
In 2024, while cultivating new stores, XPeng will accelerate channel penetration. By the third quarter of this year, the total number of sales stores will increase to 600.
Regarding the previously circulating rumor about "requiring dealers to maintain inventory," He Xiaopeng responded for the first time, stating that starting in Q2 of this year, they will launch an innovative dealership partnership model. By establishing a short-term channel inventory of approximately two weeks, the aim is to speed up delivery and boost dealer enthusiasm.
In the automotive industry, XPeng's adjustment is not uncommon. It is an open secret that traditional carmakers pressure dealers to maintain inventory, and in many cases, impressive sales figures are achieved at the expense of dealers.
In China, car dealership inventory turnover is generally around two months, and for some economy-class family cars, it can be even higher. The purpose of this practice is to boost sales volume.
To avoid the pitfalls of the traditional 4S store sales model, XPeng will strictly control inventory levels and ensure a consistent user experience nationwide through systems and monitoring mechanisms.
Marketing Transformation
In addition to the dealership channel changes, marketing strategies are also being adjusted.
He Xiaopeng stated that in 2024, they will establish a robust new marketing team, with a greater focus on short video marketing. They will also reduce low-efficiency purchasing and transition from the previous "automotive + internet" approach to "automotive + mobile internet."
For example, XPeng's Chinese New Year campaign to collect videos of car owners using their smart driving features during the Spring Festival attracted 20,000 participants. This helped expand the reputation of XPeng's smart driving from first-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities, and in the past month, there has been a surge of over 100% in positive online comments.
Moreover, Wang Fengying, who joined XPeng from Great Wall Motors, is applying her expertise in brand innovation. At Great Wall, Wang Fengying transformed the sales model, making the Diier皮卡 the champion in its segment. Subsequently, she pioneered the "urban SUV" concept, giving birth to the extremely popular Haval H6.
In terms of product planning, Xpeng will continue to focus on category innovation. Category innovation is the most valuable form of innovation, because the differentiation advantage of a new category far outweighs the "internal competition" of homogeneous products. For example, the Xpeng X9 has created a new category of large vehicles that can accommodate both four and seven seats. With its MPV design, it has already captured a large share of the mid-to-large SUV market.
The past year has been marked by intense turbulence for Xpeng Motors in terms of external market environment, internal organizational structure, products and channels. Fortunately, Xpeng has weathered the storm.
The road ahead will continue to be stormy and competitive, and great uncertainties still loom over every player. However, having experienced the trials and tribulations of the past, Xpeng has found the path that suits it best.
