On March 22, TSMC's former R&D Director, Yang Guanglei, stated that China must develop its own semiconductor industry in the face of the United States' export controls on the semiconductor industry. However, it is unclear how long it will take to achieve complete independence, and it may take decades to establish a self-sustaining system.
In recent years, China's semiconductor industry has developed rapidly, driven by government support and domestic demand.
Even though the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands have continued to restrict China's semiconductor industry's development by limiting exports of semiconductor equipment, the industry has not stopped growing.
Although Taiwan currently holds a key position in both the front-end and back-end of semiconductor manufacturing, the United States, Japan, and Europe have advantages in front-end manufacturing equipment and back-end packaging, testing, and materials. However, close cooperation is still needed to meet the demand of the semiconductor market.
However, mainland China has built a supply chain system that covers almost the entire semiconductor industry, driven by government support and its own庞大的 market demand. Although many links are still relatively weak, especially in semiconductor equipment.
Yang Guanglei has previously stated that a major breakthrough in mainland China's semiconductors has been in semiconductor equipment. In the past, no one was willing to do it, but now there is a certain scale and technical capability. He predicted that in the next few years, mainland China's mature processes are likely to sweep the world due to cost advantages.
In his latest speech, Yang Guanglei further pointed out that mainland China's semiconductor industry must develop independently under US restrictions and will eventually form its own system, but it may take decades to complete.
Even if it can become self-sufficient, the development of a closed system will be vastly different from the scale of cooperation with the outside world, and it will be difficult to compete with the externally collaborative global ecosystem. However, if external global countries cannot cooperate, it will be a different story.
Looking at the development of the entire semiconductor industry, Yang Guanglei believes that Taiwan's success can be attributed to being in the right place at the right time, with the right people, and with a unique wafer foundry industry that fits the local culture.
In the future, TSMC will continue to occupy a leading position with the development opportunities of artificial intelligence, and the basic needs of wafer fabs will remain unchanged due to the global application of technological innovation. However, future challenges will include geopolitical pressure and risks leading to a reorganization of the global supply chain, as well as talent shortages and generational cultural gaps.
In contrast, Japan's semiconductor industry has declined since its heyday in the 1980s, but its position in semiconductor materials remains leading, and its semiconductor equipment is also strong. Now, with full government support, Japan's semiconductor manufacturing is expected to regain its leading position. However, Japan's semiconductor manufacturing layout, quality, and cost competition, as well as talent shortages and digital transformation issues, are all challenges to be addressed.
In Yang Guanglei's view, Taiwan and Japan each have their own strengths and must face risks. The two sides have the opportunity to go further through complementary cooperation. Taiwan leads in semiconductor manufacturing, while Japan plays a significant role in equipment and materials. Cooperation between the two sides has a multiplier effect.
In the past, UMC and Fujitsu cooperated in 2090nm, while Lixun Semiconductor has now signed a memorandum of understanding with SBI Holdings of Japan to cooperate in 2855nm. TSMC, SONY Semiconductor, and EDNSO's joint venture, Japan Kumamoto wafer fab JASM, are cooperating in 12~28nm, all of which are good examples.
However, while there are advantages to cooperation between the two sides, there will also be competition. For example, Rapidus, which is actively developing cutting-edge processes, will have potential competition with TSMC, and cultural differences between the two places are issues that both sides need to pay attention to when working together in the semiconductor industry.
For the development of the semiconductor industry in various places, talent is crucial. In addition to finding ways to attract external talent, the cultivation of one's own talent is the core driving force for development. But talent cultivation is not something that can be achieved overnight.
Yang Guanglei has previously stated that the government can only play a supporting role in talent cultivation. Rather than the number of people, more attention should be paid to the quality of talent, and different thinking is needed for semiconductor talent education.
According to the data, Yang Guanglei previously worked at TSMC for 20 years, and participated in the development of TSMC's 0.18, 0.13 micron and later 65-nanometer processes. After leaving his position as TSMC's R&D Infrastructure Engineering Director in 2018, he joined China's SMIC as an independent director in July 2019. It was not until November 11, 2021, that Yang Guanglei resigned as an independent non-executive director and member of the remuneration committee of SMIC.
