According to TrendForce's latest analysis on March 29, NAND flash contract prices are expected to rise by 13-18% in the second quarter due to continued low production strategies among upstream flash memory enterprises, excluding Kioxia-Western Digital. This increase is projected to drive up contract prices for consumer-grade solid-state drives by 10-15%.
TrendForce noted that although NAND flash procurement is expected to slightly decrease in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, the overall market atmosphere continues to be impacted by upstream production cuts. Additionally, supplier inventories are decreasing, leading to a further rise in flash memory contract prices.
In terms of specific categories, for eMMC, as some suppliers have reduced the supply of such products, the largest demander, Chinese smartphone brands, are beginning to increase the usage rate of domestic module factory solutions. It is estimated that the contract price of eMMC in the second quarter will increase by 10-15%.
As for UFS, the recent significant growth in demand for smartphones in India and Southeast Asia, coupled with domestic smartphone companies raising inventory levels to a safe level in advance, has provided support to the demand side of UFS flash memory. In addition, with suppliers aiming to achieve quick profit and loss balance, the contract price of UFS is also expected to rise by 10-15%.
In terms of enterprise/data center-grade solid-state drives, due to the increased demand from CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) in China and North America, coupled with buyers' plans to increase inventory levels before the peak season in the second half of the year, TrendForce estimates a season-on-season increase of 20-25% in contract prices for this category of products, with the highest increase across the board.
For client (consumer-grade) solid-state drives, they are currently in the off-season for terminal sales, and downstream PC brand factories are unable to transfer the price increase impact through finished product price adjustments. Therefore, this year's order demand is suppressed, and the overall product contract price will rise by 10-15% in the second quarter.
As for NAND flash wafers, although the original manufacturers hope to achieve profitability as soon as possible, the overall retail market demand is sluggish. Therefore, the increase compared to the previous quarter will be significantly narrowed, with only a 5-10% increase.
