Recently, record-breaking rainfall hit the Arabian Peninsula, causing flooding in cities along the coast such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and other Emirates. This extreme weather has sparked speculation about whether the UAE's long-standing cloud seeding program played a role. However, it's almost certain that cloud seeding had no significant impact on the flooding.
On April 17, a driver abandoned their car in Dubai following heavy rainfall.
Image Source: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg/Getty
According to the UAE's state news agency, this is the most extreme weather event recorded in the UAE since 1949. From April 15 to 16, several areas of the country experienced rainfall amounts in 24 hours that exceeded the normal annual rainfall.
The drainage systems in coastal cities of the UAE were overwhelmed by runoff, leading to widespread flooding. Dramatic scenes of planes taxiing through water at Dubai International Airport circulated widely online. In neighboring Oman, flash floods resulted in at least 18 fatalities. Rare rainfall was also observed in parts of Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
Cloud seeding, a method to enhance precipitation, involves dispersing a substance like silver iodide into clouds via aircraft or rockets. This encourages the formation of water droplets around the particles, which then fall as rain or snow.
Since 2002, the UAE has maintained one of the world's most extensive cloud seeding programs. Aircraft are regularly deployed for cloud seeding missions to augment freshwater resources in arid regions.
A meteorologist from the UAE's National Center of Meteorology (NCM) told Bloomberg News that aircraft had conducted cloud seeding operations over the country in the days leading up to the storm, fueling speculation about the role of cloud seeding in this extreme rainfall event. However, the NCM later stated that no cloud seeding operations were carried out during the storm.
Even if cloud seeding were conducted during the storm, its impact on precipitation would be minimal and localized, according to Maarten Ambaum from the University of Reading. Currently, there is no technology that can create or significantly alter such rainfall events.
Many claims of successful cloud seeding are either erroneous, scientifically flawed, or outright fraudulent, leading to skepticism among most atmospheric scientists, as noted by Andrew Dessler from Texas A&M University.
So, what were the meteorological factors behind this storm? Suzanne Gray from the University of Reading analyzed that this extreme precipitation event was driven by a large storm known as a mesoscale convective system, occurring when "numerous individual thunderstorms merge to form a single, massive high-level cloud shield."
Linking this specific event to climate change requires further analysis, but climate change may play a role. "These types of intense rainfall events may become more extreme due to climate change, as warmer atmospheres can hold more water vapor," says Ambaum, suggesting that temperature changes could also influence atmospheric circulation patterns, altering precipitation patterns.
For instance, a recent study found that since 2000, the Arabian Peninsula has experienced 95 storms similar to the one triggering this extreme rainfall event, with March and April being the most common months. The study also noted an increase in the duration of such storm events in the UAE since 2001, potentially linked to rising temperatures.
Another climate modeling study predicts a 10% to 25% increase in annual precipitation in the UAE by the mid-21st century, characterized by more frequent intense rainfall events.
