Today, we're not discussing the performance of any specific product, but rather delving into the topic of "foldable screens" themselves to explore the rationale behind foldable phones.
Let's first take a look at the market performance of foldable phones. According to the latest data report from IDC, the shipment volume of foldable phones in China reached approximately 7.07 million units in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 114.5%.
In the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, the shipment volume of foldable phones in China was around 2.77 million units, showing a staggering 149.6% year-on-year growth. While these numbers seem promising and the growth is impressive, they pale in comparison to the roughly 270 million units of smartphones shipped in the Chinese market in 2023.
Overall, foldable screens currently hold a certain position in the market, but much of it is driven by "showcasing technology" and "securing market presence". However, in terms of profitability, judging by the current shipment volumes, it's likely not substantial or significant.
Looking ahead, although the shipment volume of foldable phones increases each year, replacing traditional flat-screen phones is nearly impossible. There are many reasons for this, such as durability issues stemming from complex structures, including screen creases and hinge strength, which deteriorate over time with usage.
In addition, there are the higher price and maintenance costs, the challenge of balancing portability and functionality, and, of course, the biggest bottleneck hindering the development of foldable screens: the lack of core use cases.
Smartphones are so ubiquitous because we need them, and candy-bar style phones have already done a great job at that, even pushing the boundaries with foldable screens. However, foldable screen phones still fall within the realm of smartphones.
They're more of an "innovation" in form factor and user experience rather than introducing fundamentally new use cases. Whether it's gaming, watching movies, or even mobile office work, their advantages aren't immediately apparent, and they might even have some disadvantages due to lack of app adaptation.
So, could foldable phones replace candy-bar style phones given a well-developed app ecosystem? The author still doesn't think so.
Without core use cases, even with a well-developed app ecosystem, it's hard to see a significant difference in user experience between foldable and candy-bar style phones.
That's because, for most users, basic phone functions like calling, internet browsing, and photography are already well-served by candy-bar style phones, and foldable phones don't offer any additional advantages in these areas.
Unless, someday, there's a top-tier app exclusively tailored for foldable screens, or foldable screens significantly outperform current slim and lightweight phones in terms of size and weight, it's unlikely that foldable phones will become mainstream.
In conclusion:
Overall, without significant use cases and technological breakthroughs, foldable phones are unlikely to fully replace traditional flat-screen phones.
However, it's worth acknowledging that this doesn't mean foldable phones have no potential for development. With continuous technological advancements and evolving market dynamics, foldable phones may still find their niche in certain specific areas or scenarios.
Moreover, technological progress often brings unexpected changes. There might be a disruptive innovation in the future that propels foldable phones to the next level.
But for now, for most consumers, foldable phones are more about novelty or showcasing individuality. Many users opt for foldable screen products out of curiosity for their innovative form factor and unique technology rather than practical usage needs.
