Lately, Tesla's news just keeps coming in waves.
First, a significant drop in stock price, followed by a wave of layoffs. Musk made another trip to China, and soon after, news broke that FSD is set to be introduced in China. Not to mention the news about Tesla abandoning the Model 2/Q...
Among all these news pieces, one stands out glaringly:
Tesla has already given up on the next-generation integrated casting technology.
I seem to remember that the integrated die-casting was a version recommended by Tesla itself.
In the book "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future," there is a little story that the origin of integrated die-casting was just Musk casually dismantling a car model, but it ended up sparking a technological revolution in the automotive industry.
It's a pity that such an inspiring story doesn't have a sequel.
However, Tesla has not completely abandoned the integrated casting process; they just don't plan to further optimize it.
But I think, even if they just don't plan to continue upgrading, for Tesla, which has always been "far ahead," it can still be considered a kind of "failure."
After all, back in the day, Musk could sit in the Texas factory, drinking beer, boasting about their integrated casting 1.0 - reducing weight, increasing range, cutting costs, and speeding up production, which was all very impressive.
In recent years, companies like NIO, WM Motor, XPeng, Enovate, and Ideal have all followed suit.
When Tesla introduced the Integrated Casting 2.0 last year, many were anticipating a complete revolution in car manufacturing processes by Tesla.
But did they just hit the brakes on this innovation? It's a bit hard to swallow.
For the rear underbody of the Model 3, there are over 70 parts, while for the Integrated Casting of the Model Y, there is only one part.
Help everyone recall that at last year's Investor Day, Musk drew a big pie chart on the car manufacturing process: "Unbox".
By using "Unbox", you can assemble a car like LEGO, which can help Tesla go through the miraculous process of integrated casting again.
To achieve this goal, the first challenge to tackle is how to realize integrated die-casting 2.0.
The aim of the brand-new version of integrated die-casting is not just to address the issues of individual components but to mold the entire underside of a car, which competitors have assembled from over 400 separate parts, into a single unit.
However, Tesla has now decided to switch gears and adopt the more mature approach of a three-piece cast lower body, similar to what is seen in the Model Y and Cybertruck.
According to various sources, on one hand, Tesla is facing significant pressure on recent performance and profits, needing to cut costs and focus on making money; on the other hand, there are still technical challenges to overcome.
However, it seems that many may have overlooked one point, that is, whether the integrated die-casting process is truly as miraculous as it seems.
In fact, since Tesla's high-profile introduction of the integrated die-casting process, there have been many skeptics.
Because die-casting or casting processes have been mastered by humans since ancient times, and using die-casting to manufacture components in the automotive industry is not new.
Die-casting molds used in the Audi A8
Insisting on originality, squeezing large integrated castings into cars is indeed a Tesla innovation, but it has also led to many problems.
For example, quality control is the biggest challenge of large integrated castings because the design and production processes involved are very complex, making it difficult to ensure quality in the end.
Therefore, it is said that buying a Tesla with flawed workmanship online is the real deal.
Zhao Chunlin, Vice President of domestic company JiKe, has also complained that "castings cannot pass JiKe's standards at all."
Even so, Tesla has been exposed for a scrap rate of over 60% in its integrated die-casting parts.
On the other hand, the advantages of reducing vehicle weight and cost through integrated die-casting technology are also facing continuous scrutiny.
For instance, in the case of reducing vehicle weight, Tesla chose to develop a heat-treatment-free aluminum alloy to address quality control issues arising from thermal expansion and contraction of die-cast parts.
This indeed solves some quality control issues, but the strength of such materials is not sufficient.
To ensure the strength of the car, more material needs to be added, but then the weight reduction effect is not as good.
It's like adding more water to the noodles, which is a tricky move...
As for reducing costs, that's even harder to achieve. We can't just consider the expenses incurred in investing in new technology research and development to achieve integrated die casting as contributing to the advancement of technology for humanity.
In the industrial aspect alone, it's very difficult to save money with integrated die casting.
Everyone knows that integrated die-casting machines have high pressure, occupy a large area, and use heavy and large molds inside, often weighing hundreds of tons.
The problem this brings is that if you want to change the mold for production, you need a crane to operate it, which takes at least 10 hours.
Large one-piece die-cast components are basically not interchangeable, like the rear body die-cast part of the Model Y, which cannot be used for the Model 3.
Therefore, unlike the extensive interchangeability of parts in traditional car models, many one-piece die-cast components are often dedicated to specific vehicles, significantly reducing their utilization rate.
To ensure the cost-effectiveness of die-casting machines, according to estimates from industry insiders cited by electric vehicle observers, at least 15,000 pieces need to be produced monthly.
This means that a single model needs to sell over 180,000 units per year to save costs effectively.
However, in China last year, only about 10 new energy vehicle models barely exceeded sales of 180,000 units, and even Tesla's own Model 3 did not achieve this sales volume...
Not only that, at the beginning of last year, Tesla officials themselves stated that integrated casting could reduce the cost of rear floor components by 40%. It's important to note that this refers to the rear floor components, not the overall vehicle manufacturing cost.
This is also why, despite Tesla pulling out all the stops with various cutting-edge technologies, the price of a single car still hovers around 200,000 RMB. I can only say that relying on integrated casting to bring down Tesla's prices is not as effective as hoping for a drop in the price of lithium batteries next door.
Therefore, Brother Neck feels that the biggest contribution of integrated casting is actually in shortening the car manufacturing time and the development cycle of new car models.
Shortening the car manufacturing time is easier to understand, as fewer components mean faster production.
Reducing the development cycle of car models is because in traditional car manufacturing, the three parts of the body, interior and exterior design, and electrical components need to go through three rounds of comprehensive matching, which typically takes about six months.
However, with integrated die-casting, it is possible to simplify the logistics and matching difficulty of components, directly shortening the development cycle to 1-2 months.
Therefore, in the past two years when Tesla was selling well and production capacity was the biggest constraint on sales, integrated die-casting played a significant role.
But Tesla clearly didn't make good use of shortening the development cycle for new car models.
In these years of rapid development of domestic new energy vehicles, Tesla has hardly launched any new cars.
The model 2/Q, which has long been considered the most suitable for the integrated die-casting 2.0, has not yet been launched, and there were even recent rumors of the project being scrapped.
Elon Musk, in a fit of anger, accused the media of being a big liar, but to be honest, with so many recent hiccups at Tesla, Musk has to take some responsibility.
Before this recent Tesla debacle, many had already criticized Musk for neglecting Tesla.
His online rants also reveal Musk's mind being consumed by AI and SpaceX's grand Mars plans.
Just when he finally refocused on the cars, he plunged headfirst into the story of autonomous driving.
To Musk, without autonomous driving, even the best cars are no different from fancy carriages.
We can't determine whether Musk's call to halt Integrated Casting 2.0 is his true attempt to seize the window of opportunity and fully conquer the technology for Robotaxi.
Or perhaps he simply finds the integrated chassis casting technology too challenging. Tesla, facing challenges on all fronts, is eager to revitalize its dominance with a faster and simpler approach.
It could also be that, benefiting from the cluster advantage in the domestic automotive industry chain, pushing for casting technology advancements may only marginally improve the current situation. It might be more effective to address other weaknesses instead of focusing solely on improving what's already at 90 to 92.
However, as ordinary consumers, what's more concerning is the long wait for the Model 2 / Q. It seems that the short-term integration of casting 2.0 won't be available anytime soon.
This might imply that the price won't be as low as expected, or the launch won't be as quick as anticipated.
The domestic car market in China is ever-changing. Old horse, I suggest you think carefully before making your move!
Author: Bajie Editors: Jiang Jiang & Mian Xian Cover: Xuan Xuan
Image sources:
X: @musk
auto evolution: Tesla's Mega Castings Are Not Working Well for Giga Gruenheide: Over 60% of Rejects
The Verge: Tesla’s new car-building process could be a huge industrial breakthrough
The Verge: Tesla’s in its flop era
The Verge: Tesla reportedly shrinks its gigacasting manufacturing ambitions
"Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future"
Bloomberg: Musk denies Tesla abandoning plans for low-cost car
Debon Securities: In-depth series report on aluminum alloy industry: Multiple barriers to build the cornerstone of integrated casting
Node Finance: Why are reputable car companies all pursuing integrated casting?
Zosi Auto Research: 2024 Automotive Integrated Casting Industry Research Report
Yuanchuan Auto Review: Tesla's integrated casting is only "70% cooked"
Electric Vehicle Observer: Cars becoming like Lego, is integrated casting the endgame of car manufacturing?
