"Why do you need so many horses?" The villagers were curious about the group of about twenty young people carrying large and small bags in front of them, not knowing what they were here for.
Fan Xuanmei couldn't remember how many times she had been to Zhibai Village. Her scientific expedition team would briefly rest in the village, hiring local Tibetan compatriots to transport instruments and equipment on horseback. They were heading to the foot of Mount Namcha Barwa, at an altitude of 7782 meters, a seven to eight-hour hike away.
There lay incomparably beautiful layers of mountains and cliffs, but also potential unknown geological hazards. Fan Xuanmei's job was to gather "intelligence" from glacier crevasses and mountain terrain, studying the prediction of geological disaster chains in the frozen circle of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, safeguarding major national strategic projects in the snowy plateau.
Where there are disasters or potential disasters, there is Fan Xuanmei. For the past twenty years, she has ventured into the mountains, walking against the tide in the front lines of geological disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, and mudslides, providing crucial support for disaster relief and geological disaster warnings through scientific means.
Fan Xuanmei, who has won numerous awards, recently received the 19th "Chinese Young Female Scientist Award." "Winning the award was quite a surprise, and it encourages me to continue delving deeper into the field I study with even more passion. What I'm doing now is far from enough."
Conducting research that reaches for the sky and stands on the ground
"Mom, is the place you're going to safe?" Before departing for the scientific expedition in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Fan Xuanmei's 8-year-old son asked with concern. "Mom herself is doing research on disasters, so I will ensure my own safety and that of others."
Fan Xuanmei is a doctoral supervisor at Chengdu University of Technology. She is meticulous and rigorous in her work, never liking to go into battle unprepared. When organizing the first scientific expedition to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, she even invited a professional Red Cross wilderness rescue team for training. However, no matter how well-prepared they were, the challenges of the plateau expedition taught everyone a harsh lesson.
Their destination was a glacier area at the foot of Mount Namcha Barwa. Due to the rugged terrain, they could only hike there. The unmanned aerial vehicles, ground penetrating radar, high-density electrical resistivity meter, environmental background noise meter, 3D laser scanner, and other equipment they brought had to be carried slowly by horses. Each person carried a large mountaineering backpack on their back.
Fan Xuanmei and her team set off from the Yarlung Tsangpo River to climb Mount Namcha Barwa via the Zelong Glacier. Despite continuous rain along the way, the team persisted in climbing for nearly 7 hours.
After completing geological surveys and geophysical work at the Midui Glacier, the team gathered for a group photo.
As the team leader, Fan Xuanmei must always be prepared to deal with altitude sickness, injuries, and other emergencies among team members, while also boosting morale. Due to the remote location, the scientific expedition team couldn't return to the village on the same day. They needed to set up camp at a site selected in advance using remote sensing data and spend the night there.
The night in the mountains seemed even more mysterious and unpredictable. The surroundings felt like plunging into a pitch-black abyss, with only sporadic lights shining through the various sizes of tents at the campsite. The wind in the valley rustled against the tent fabric, creating a sound that was both eerie and exhilarating. Despite a hint of fear, everyone was also energized. After all, conducting scientific research on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a dream for many geologists.
The real challenge lay in the daytime fieldwork. Fan Xuanmei's team was studying the risk prediction of glacier hazards caused by strong earthquakes and climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Detailed investigations of glacier thickness, internal structure, and crevasse conditions were necessary in the preliminary stages. Walking on the glacier, they often heard the cracking sound of ice fissures inside, sounding like "crack, crack, crack." To prevent anyone from falling in, each team member was tied to a rope.
Despite the hardships and dangers of each expedition, Fan Xuanmei persisted in leading her team to Tibet during the optimal window each year. This was because she wanted to protect the major national strategic projects such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project.
"Global climate change and seismic activities have led to frequent occurrences of glacier-rock avalanches, debris flows, glacial lake outburst floods on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent years. Only by collecting real and reliable data in the field can we ensure the accuracy of future disaster risk predictions. There is no room for error, no matter how difficult it may be, we must go." Fan Xuanmei said in an interview with the "China Science Daily."
Since entering the academic field, Fan Xuanmei has been determined to conduct "grounded" research.
"'Grounded' means that our research must be at the forefront and internationally recognized; 'grounded' means that our research must serve national disaster prevention and reduction efforts, serve major national engineering projects, and solve practical problems. Research cannot always remain in the clouds without touching the ground." Fan Xuanmei often tells her students.
The Most Admirable "Trailblazer"
Fan Xuanmei's research has always been "grounded." Since her undergraduate days, she has been accompanying her teachers to investigate geological disasters in affected areas.
Initially, Fan Xuanmei was not involved in research related to seismic geological disasters. During her master's studies, she focused on landslides in the red bed areas of Sichuan. It wasn't until the massive earthquake in Wenchuan on May 12, 2008, that her research trajectory changed.
After the earthquake, Fan Xuanmei, who was pursuing her Ph.D. at Chengdu University of Technology, rushed to the severely affected Beichuan earthquake zone with her advisor to provide support. The landscape had changed drastically, with devastation everywhere. Countless victims were pulled from the rubble. Fan Xuanmei was shocked by everything she saw, and the emotionally sensitive girl from Gansu couldn't help but shed tears.
At that time, countless "what ifs" were running through her mind. If they could quickly predict the spatial distribution of geological disasters triggered by earthquakes, if they could avoid high-risk geological disaster areas when siting important buildings, if they could provide post-earthquake geological disaster warnings... perhaps more lives could be saved.
Fan Xuanmei conducts geophysical exploration in the earthquake-stricken areas of Wenchuan.
Fan Xuanmei also discovered that the "wounds" on the earth after the earthquake did not "heal," but instead triggered a series of chain reactions: landslides are everywhere, rivers are blocked by landslides, debris dams are formed in many places, and dam breaches cause floods. This is a whole disaster chain issue, and before this, few people had delved into the entire process and direction of the disaster chain.
"My expertise lies in geological disaster research. If I don't study this issue, then studying this specialty would be meaningless." Fan Xuanmei resolutely changed her nearly completed research topic to a more complex study on the mechanism and prediction of strong earthquake geological disaster chains.
Since then, Fan Xuanmei has become one of the most beautiful "reverse travelers." Whenever she learns of earthquakes, landslides, or debris flows occurring somewhere, she immediately packs up and rushes to the front line of the disaster. The "4.20" Lushan earthquake, the "8.3" Ludian earthquake, the "8.8" Jiuzhaigou earthquake, the "9.5" Luding earthquake, and more have all witnessed her busy figure.
After the Luding earthquake on September 5, 2022, Fan Xuanmei conducted on-site geological disaster investigation work.
Venturing into the front lines requires great courage and bravery, as secondary disasters can occur at any moment. Once, Fan Xuanmei narrowly escaped death. In order to study the post-earthquake evolution of geological disasters, Fan Xuanmei traveled by car to Yingxiu, the epicenter of the "5.12" earthquake. While traveling along National Highway 317, a giant rock about 6 meters in diameter suddenly rolled down the slope and landed right in front of their car, blocking the road. If the car had been a few seconds faster, it would have been flattened.
Despite the inevitable dangers, Fan Xuanmei never backed down. Over the years, under her leadership, the team has obtained more and more first-hand seismic geological disaster data. By combining data from over 50 earthquakes worldwide and collecting over 400,000 geological disaster records, they have established the most comprehensive earthquake-induced geological disaster database internationally.
Building upon this database, Fan Xuanmei has utilized cutting-edge artificial intelligence algorithms in recent years to develop a near real-time prediction model for earthquake-induced landslides. Through multiple real-world tests, the accuracy of this model surpasses the best model of the United States Geological Survey by about 20%.
"This model can quickly and accurately identify the areas most likely to experience landslides based on the seismic information at the time, maximizing the potential for rescue operations in the critical 72 hours post-earthquake," Fan Xuanmei explained. During the Luding earthquake on September 5, this model truly excelled, rapidly predicting the spatial distribution of geological disasters that the earthquake could trigger, significantly aiding local rescue efforts.
Since 2008, Fan Xuanmei's team at the State Key Laboratory of Geological Hazard Prevention and Geological Environmental Protection has developed a series of geological disaster prediction and early warning models. These models have successfully predicted hundreds of mountain landslides, saving the lives and property of tens of thousands of people.
Years of dedication have propelled this team, driven by a passion for practical work, to the forefront of the international academic stage. "Internationally, whenever strong seismic geological disasters are mentioned, everyone quickly thinks of my team, which makes me proud," Fan Xuanmei said, bringing her closer to her goal of leading a top international team.
"I care more about the safety of the masses than publishing papers."
With increasing recognition in the international academic community, Fan Xuanmei's schedule has become busier. She is frequently invited to major international conferences and personally organizes the International Conference on Engineering Geology and Environmental Geology. On stage, dressed elegantly with a radiant smile, she effortlessly shares research progress with colleagues from around the world.
The accolades in Fan Xuanmei's resume are becoming more impressive: she has received the National Science and Technology Progress First Prize, the 2022 "Scientific Exploration Award" (the first and only female winner in the field of engineering geology and geological disasters), the International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment (IAEG) Richard-Wolters Young Scientist Award (the first and only female winner in China), the 19th "China Young Female Scientist Award," inclusion in the top 2% of global scientists, and high citation rates.
However, she admits that compared to other scholars, she has not published a large number of papers. Explaining the reasons behind this, Fan Xuanmei said, "First, I have high standards for publishing articles; second, solving practical problems is sometimes more important than publishing papers."
"We will never publish papers just for the sake of it, nor will we publish in low-quality journals. This is the bottom line for my team," Fan Xuanmei often reminds her students. She hopes that her research can make substantial contributions to advancing science and that her published work will earn the respect of her peers.
Every major geological disaster prompts Fan Xuanmei's team to work tirelessly. For instance, during the Luding earthquake on September 5, they were inundated with tasks: assessing damaged roads, identifying the most severely affected buildings, predicting potential mountain landslides, and forecasting possible debris flows. The Ministry of Emergency Management, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the frontline emergency command center anxiously awaited the team's daily reports to make timely emergency deployments and personnel allocations.
While they were busy providing immediate support to the disaster area, there were instances where other research teams rushed to publish papers ahead of them.
"Sometimes students feel frustrated, believing that the other party did not go to the site but easily published a paper by analyzing post-earthquake remote sensing data," Fan Xuanmei understands this sentiment.
However, she prioritizes the safety of the masses over publishing papers. "The models we study are meant to help frontline rescuers save more lives from geological disasters. If we don't support the frontline immediately, it's like doctors prioritizing publishing papers over treating patients, which violates academic ethics, something I cannot accept."
Over the years, Fan Xuanmei has persisted in conducting research that is beneficial to her homeland. "My research must be useful; otherwise, there's no point in doing it."
Fan Xuanmei guides a team of master's and doctoral students to conduct experiments on ice-rock debris flows in a low-temperature chamber.
"I am delighted to see the national evaluation system undergoing a diversification of changes. The many awards I have received are not based on how many top-tier publications I have, but a genuine recognition of my work," said Fan Xuanmei contentedly. Moving forward, she will continue to cultivate more talents in geological disaster research, achieve outstanding results, and contribute to the prediction of catastrophic risks in China.
(All images in the article are provided by the interviewee)
