Thanks to the rapid growth of wind and solar power, renewable energy is set to reach a historic milestone in 2023, accounting for 30% of global electricity generation. According to data from the think tank Ember, 2023 marks a turning point towards a low-carbon energy transition, with coal and gas-fired power generation on the brink of long-term decline.
The rapid growth of solar power generation in China is reshaping the global electricity landscape. Green electricity accounted for 30.3% of total power generation last year, up from 29.4% in 2022, reaching a new high. This increase is attributed to the rapid expansion of wind and solar power, particularly in China, with other renewable sources like hydropower and bioenergy making up the rest.
Solar power has been the fastest-growing source of electricity, with its share rising from 4.6% in 2022 to 5.5% in 2023, continuing a long-term trend. Since 2000, wind and solar power only made up 0.2% of global electricity generation, but now they account for a record 13.4%.
The share of electricity generated from fossil fuels decreased from 61.4% in 2022 to 60.6% in 2023. However, due to a 2.2% increase in overall energy demand, the generation from these fuels slightly increased, mainly in China. Nuclear power provided 9.1% of electricity, remaining steady from 2022.
Hannah Broadbent from Ember stated that further increases in wind and solar deployment mean that fossil fuel generation should decline in 2024, marking the first time outside of an economic crisis or pandemic that this has happened, even with growing electricity demand.
"We really see 2023 as a significant turning point in energy history," Broadbent said. "Renewables have not only hit this historic milestone, but we also believe this will be the peak for fossil generation. We expect that from this year onwards, fossil fuel generation globally will start to decrease."
Broadbent noted that in absolute terms, fossil fuel generation will decrease in 2023, but severe droughts in China, India, Vietnam, and Mexico reduced hydropower. Coal-fired power plants filled this gap, leading to a 1% increase in emissions from the power sector.
Ember predicts that if hydropower partially recovers in 2024, emissions from power generation will decrease by 4%, marking the beginning of a long-term decline in fossil fuel in the energy mix.
However, to meet global climate goals, there must be a faster increase in the deployment of green electricity in the coming years. Models suggest that to keep global warming below 1.5°C by the end of the century, wind and solar power must provide 40% of global electricity, roughly three times the current generation levels.
