On March 19, 2024, PulseStacks reported on a discussion at the China Electric Vehicle Hundred-Person Meeting regarding the assertion that "new energy vehicles have lower spontaneous combustion rates than conventional fuel vehicles." The discussion was sparked by the following chart.
The excerpt from the speech by Ouyang Minghao, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred-Person Meeting and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, regarding the safety comparison between new energy vehicles and conventional fuel vehicles.
When responding to concerns about the safety of electric vehicle batteries, Academician Ouyang Minggao cited a set of data from the National Fire and Rescue Bureau, expressing his sentiment that "Electric car fires make the news, but gasoline car fires don't." Despite the unanimous agreement in the industry that the number of electric vehicles in circulation is much smaller than gasoline cars, the incidence of fires does not represent the fire rate. However, the data presented by Academician Ouyang Minggao still seems somewhat optimistic.
The rate of electric vehicle fires is more than ten-thousandths of 0.1 lower than that of gasoline vehicles. But what's causing this anomaly?
Issue 1: Quoting incorrect data or involving the wrong year Upon checking the official website of the National Fire and Rescue Bureau, Pulsestacks did not find any disclosure of vehicle fire data for the first quarter of 2023. However, on April 4, 2022, the Ministry of Emergency Management did indeed release an article on the official website of the National Fire and Rescue Bureau titled "21.9 Million Fires in the First Quarter Nationwide, with 625 Deaths!" The article disclosed the situation of reported fires nationwide in the first quarter of 2022.
The article mentioned, "Looking at fires from various types of vehicles, there has been a significant increase in fires involving new energy vehicles. A total of 19,000 fires of various types of vehicles were reported, an increase of 8.8% compared to last year. Among them, there were 640 fires involving new energy vehicles, an increase of 32% compared to the previous year, and 3,777 fires involving electric bicycles, an increase of 35.9% compared to the previous year, all of which were higher than the average increase in fires involving various types of vehicles."
The figure "640" matches the data on self-ignition of new energy vehicles in Ouyang Minggao's PPT, indicating the first issue with the referenced data - a potential error in the data or the year.
Issue Two: Doubts about data on combustion vehicles' self-ignition According to the Ministry of Emergency Management's document, in the first quarter of 2022, there were 19,000 fires involving various types of transportation, including 640 incidents with new energy vehicles and 3,777 incidents with electric bicycles.
This suggests that out of the 19,000 fires involving various transportation modes, incidents involved not only new energy vehicles, electric bicycles, and combustion vehicles but possibly also motorcycles, ships, and other transportation modes. Additionally, the fire incidents might include cases of spontaneous combustion due to external factors such as traffic accidents.
In other words, the maximum number of fires caused by combustion vehicles in the first quarter of 2022 would be 14,583, excluding the 640 incidents of self-ignition with new energy vehicles and 3,777 incidents with electric bicycles.
This figure is lower than the 18,360 mentioned in Academician Ouyang Minggao's PPT (19,000 - 640 = 18,360). Apart from the questionable quantity, there is also a change in units, representing the second issue with the referenced data in the PPT.
Issue Three: Doubts about data on combustion vehicle ownership By checking the official website of the Ministry of Public Security, it was found that on October 10, 2023, the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security released an article titled "The National Motor Vehicle Population Reaches 430 Million, Drivers Reach 520 Million, and the Number of New Energy Vehicles Reaches 18.21 Million." This article disclosed the specific data on the national motor vehicle population as of the end of September 2023.
According to the statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, as of the end of September 2023, the national motor vehicle population reached 430 million, including 330 million automobiles and 18.21 million new energy vehicles. It was further revealed that in the first, second, and third quarters, the newly registered automobiles were 5.88 million, 5.87 million, and 6.42 million, respectively.
Simultaneously, in the new energy vehicle ownership data as of the end of September 2023, the newly registered new energy vehicles in the first, second, and third quarters were 1.44 million, 1.709 million, and 2.049 million, respectively.
After calculation, it's highly probable that the data for the first quarter of 2023 regarding the number of gasoline vehicles and new energy vehicles chosen by Ouyang Minghao were derived from the referenced document. The data on gasoline vehicle ownership in the PowerPoint presentation is likely calculated as follows: subtracting 5.87 million vehicles in the second quarter and 6.42 million vehicles in the third quarter from the total of 330 million vehicles, resulting in 317.71 million vehicles.
However, in reality, as disclosed by the Ministry of Public Security, the total number of vehicles as of the end of September 2023, 330 million, includes the ownership of new energy vehicles. Therefore, the number of gasoline vehicles in the first quarter of 2023 should be calculated as the total vehicle ownership for that quarter minus the ownership of new energy vehicles. Specifically, it should be deducted by another 14.452 million vehicles (182.1 - 17.09 - 20.49 = 14.452), resulting in a final gasoline vehicle ownership of 303.258 million vehicles. Additionally, the denominator in Ouyang Minghao's formula for calculating the ignition rate is also incorrect.
Is Professor Ouyang still recruiting doctoral students?
Let's try to retrace the results.
If the data on spontaneous combustion vehicles in the first quarter of 2023 in the PowerPoint presentation indeed references the fire incident data for transportation vehicles in the first quarter of 2022, then according to the vehicle ownership data for 2022 released by the Ministry of Public Security:
In the first quarter of 2022, the fire incidence rate for gasoline vehicles was approximately 0.00004892, or 0.4892 per ten thousand vehicles, calculated as 14583 fires divided by the difference between the number of gasoline vehicles at the start of the quarter (307 million vehicles) and the number of vehicles scrapped during the quarter (8.915 million vehicles).
For the same period, the fire incidence rate for electric vehicles was approximately 0.00007179, or 0.7179 per ten thousand vehicles, calculated as 640 fires divided by the number of electric vehicles (8.915 million vehicles).
This indicates that in the first quarter of 2022, the fire incidence rate for electric vehicles was higher than that of gasoline vehicles. However, it's uncertain whether Professor Ouyang is still recruiting doctoral students. I earnestly request to join the team to ensure accurate data citation and sound conclusions.
Of course, two years have passed, and safety warning and protection technologies for electric vehicle batteries have continued to improve. Will the fire incidence rate change by the end of the first quarter of 2024?
