On April 9th, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, predicted in an interview that artificial intelligence (AI) could surpass the intelligence of the smartest humans as early as next year or by 2026.
Musk discussed various technological issues on the social media platform X's Spaces service. He revealed to Nicolai Tangen, CEO of the Norwegian Wealth Fund, that the development of AI is mainly limited by power supply constraints. The next version of the chatbot Grok, developed by Musk's startup xAI, is expected to complete training by May this year.
When asked about the progress of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Musk said, "If AGI is defined as intelligence surpassing that of the smartest human, I think it could be as soon as next year, or at most two years."
As a co-founder of OpenAI, Musk pointed out that a lack of advanced chips is affecting the training process of the second-generation model of Grok.
Last year, Musk founded xAI to compete with OpenAI and accused OpenAI of deviating from its original purpose of developing AI for the benefit of all humanity rather than pursuing profits. OpenAI has denied this accusation.
Musk revealed that training the Grok 2 AI model requires around 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPU chips, while the Grok 3 and subsequent versions of the AI model will require up to 100,000 chips of the same model.
He also noted that although chip shortages are currently the main limiting factor in AI development, the importance of power supply will significantly increase in the next one to two years.
Regarding electric vehicles, Musk reiterated the "significant competitive challenge" posed by Chinese automakers to Tesla, calling them "the most competitive globally."
Regarding the strike actions by Swedish unions against Tesla, Musk stated, "The storm has calmed."
Tangen shared that as one of Tesla's largest shareholders and with assets totaling $1.5 trillion, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund met with the Tesla board last month to learn about the latest developments.
