In April, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, a truck sprays water to cool down on the road. Image Source: MUNIR UZ ZAMAN/AFP via Getty Images
In April 2024, the global surface average temperature was 15.03 degrees Celsius, 0.14 degrees Celsius higher than the record set in April 2016. This means that the global average temperature in April 2024 was 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than in April 1850-1900, which climate scientists consider as the pre-industrial baseline.
Furthermore, the global average temperature over the past 12 months has also been the highest on record, exceeding the average for 1850-1900 by 1.6 degrees Celsius.
As part of the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to strive to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Climate scientists believe that unless the average temperature consistently exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius, this limit will not be breached, but this could happen by 2030.
Undoubtedly, the long-term rise in global temperatures is being driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. During El Niño events, warm ocean waters spread across the Pacific and release heat into the atmosphere, contributing to the recent record-breaking temperatures over the past few months. The strong El Niño event in 2016 set the record for April.
A La Niña event is likely to develop in the latter part of this year. This means that cold waters will spread into the Atlantic, cooling the surface air and temporarily lowering global surface temperatures.
Carlo Buontempo of the Copernicus Climate Change Service stated in a release, "El Niño peaked earlier this year. However, despite temperature variations associated with natural cycles like El Niño, the additional heat trapped in the oceans and atmosphere due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to drive record global temperatures."
In fact, considering the warming caused by human activities and El Niño events, the global surface temperature over the past year has even exceeded expectations, raising concerns about the possibility of accelerated global warming.
