Countries worldwide are stepping up their efforts to implement the strictest-ever restrictions on smoking and vaping, especially among the youth.
On April 16th, the UK Parliament passed the first round of voting on a proposal to create a "smoke-free generation" by 2040, where they will never be legally able to purchase cigarettes. The governments of the UK, Australia, and France are also moving to ban the use of e-cigarettes. Researchers indicate that while these proactive policies are currently limited to a few countries, they are almost certain to prevent diseases, save lives, and save billions of dollars in healthcare costs.
In the past few decades, global smoking rates have declined. Smoking's health hazards have been well established for decades—it significantly increases the risk of diseases such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. Over the past few decades, awareness of these health risks has steadily increased, leading to a reduction in this deadly habit on a global scale.
Alison Commar, who researches tobacco policies at the World Health Organization, says even a slight decrease in smoking rates can save funds and ease the burden on healthcare systems. The organization estimates that tobacco consumption causes $1.4 trillion in health expenditures and productivity losses worldwide annually. "Every tobacco-related disease unnecessarily adds to the burden on healthcare systems," Commar says.
A proposal in the UK, spearheaded by Prime Minister Sunak, is one step closer to becoming law. Duncan Gillespie, a health policy researcher at the University of Sheffield in the UK, suggests that this proposal could become "the most impactful public health policy ever."
Announced last October, the proposal stipulates a ban on selling cigarettes to those born after January 1, 2009. This would prevent individuals under the age of 15 from legally purchasing cigarettes in the country. Starting in 2027, the minimum legal age for purchasing tobacco products will increase by one year annually. The government hopes this strategy will create a "smoke-free generation" by 2040.
The UK proposal includes banning disposable e-cigarettes, restricting e-cigarette flavors that appeal to young users, and limiting the advertising of e-cigarettes. The government aims to reduce smoking while providing health benefits to individuals, as well as decreasing the toxic chemicals emitted into the environment from secondhand e-cigarette vapor.
Inspired by New Zealand, which passed a "Smokefree Generation Law" in December 2022, the UK proposal received support from a modeling study published last December. The study predicts how the proposal would affect smoking rates and the population over time.
In a "pessimistic" scenario, implementing the policy could decrease smoking rates among individuals aged 14 to 30 from 13% in 2023 to around 8% by 2030. By 2040, only 5% of this age group would smoke, compared to 8% in the baseline scenario. In an "optimistic" scenario, by 2040, only 0.4% of this age group would smoke.
The models indicate that by 2075, the policy could save tens of thousands of lives by preventing smoking-related diseases and save £11 billion in healthcare costs.
Allen Gallagher, a tobacco researcher at the University of Bath, says these predictions are based on robust evidence of high quality.
"Nevertheless, no country has yet implemented a policy to raise the minimum tobacco purchasing age in this way," says Commar. Only time will tell its effectiveness.
Scientists overwhelmingly support strict restrictions on smoking and e-cigarettes. Carolyn Baglole from McGill University Health Center in Canada says research is needed to determine the long-term health impacts of these policies. "We hope that various types of studies and models, in addition to human participants, will paint a more complete picture."
