On April 20, 2024, the China Agricultural Outlook Conference was held in Beijing. Xu Shiwei, Secretary-General of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, released the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2024-2033)" (hereinafter referred to as the Report) at the conference. The conference was guided by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and hosted by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
The report predicts that the comprehensive production capacity of important agricultural products such as grains will significantly enhance in the next 10 years. The quality and market competitiveness of agricultural product supply will be noticeably improved, while the consumption of agricultural products will continue to upgrade. The structure of food consumption will continuously optimize, and agricultural product trade will maintain a growth trend. With the vigorous implementation of large-scale yield increase actions for major crops such as grains and oils, agricultural production will steadily increase. It is estimated that the grain output will reach 766 million tons by 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.
The report analyzes that in the next 10 years, the growth rates of vegetable and fruit production will slow down, with average annual growth rates of 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. The overall production of meat will continue to grow, with pork production maintained at a reasonable level, and poultry, beef, and mutton production growing at average annual rates of 1.7%, 1.0%, and 1.2% respectively. The production of dairy products and aquatic products will continue to increase, with average annual growth rates of 4.1% and 0.9% respectively. Agricultural product consumption will continue to upgrade, and the structure of food consumption will continuously optimize. With the continuous improvement of residents' income levels and the popularization of nutritional health concepts, the structure of food consumption will continuously optimize. The demand for agricultural product consumption will transform and upgrade towards health, green, diversified, and personalized, with the consumption of high-quality and characteristic agricultural products continuously increasing.
Furthermore, grain consumption will generally stabilize with slight growth, while the consumption of meat, vegetables, and fruits will continue to grow, with average annual growth rates of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.8% respectively. By the end of the outlook period, the per capita consumption of pork, poultry, beef, and mutton is expected to reach 39.36 kg, 21.06 kg, 7.97 kg, and 4.64 kg respectively. Dairy products and aquatic product consumption will maintain rapid growth, with average annual growth rates of 3.3% and 1.2% respectively. The structure of agricultural product trade will continuously optimize, with diversified import sources. In the next 10 years, China will continue to expand high-level opening-up to the outside world, and agricultural product trade will maintain a growth trend. The trade structure of key agricultural products such as grains will continuously optimize, with more diversified trading partners.
The Report mentions that grain imports are declining, with grain imports expected to reach 110 million tons by 2033, including a decrease in corn imports to 6.8 million tons and a reduction in soybean imports from the recent high to 78.69 million tons. Vegetable and fruit exports will continue to grow rapidly, with average annual growth rates of 3.2% and 9.5% respectively; while aquatic product exports will stabilize with a slight decrease, with an average annual decrease of 1.8%. Agricultural product prices are trending upwards, with the international market linkage of bulk agricultural products weakening. In the next 10 years, the coordination system between agricultural production and sales will be more perfected, and agricultural prices will more sensitively reflect market supply and demand, with prominent features of high quality and optimal pricing. Driven by rising production costs, grain prices will show a fluctuating upward trend. As domestic supply capacity continues to strengthen, the linkage effect of bulk agricultural product prices with the international market will weaken. The price fluctuations of fresh agricultural products such as meat, eggs, dairy, vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products will slow down.
