Researcher Zhu Congwen from the China Meteorological Administration, along with collaborators, conducted a modeling study suggesting that from now until June 2024, several regions globally, including the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines, and the Caribbean Sea, may experience record-breaking average surface temperatures due to the persistent El Niño phenomenon. The study also indicates that there is about a 90% probability of record-breaking global average surface temperatures occurring during the same period under moderate or strong El Niño scenarios. The findings were published on March 1st in Scientific Reports.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) primarily occurs in the tropical Pacific and is a major driver of global climate variability. Both its warm phase, El Niño, and its cold phase, La Niña, can influence meteorological conditions. During El Niño events, heat released from the western Pacific leads to an accelerated rise in the annual global mean surface temperature (GMST). The slight increase in GMST is significantly correlated with substantial increases in surface temperatures during extreme regional warming events.
Zhu Congwen and colleagues simulated how the El Niño event from 2023 to 2024 would affect regional changes in average surface temperatures from July 2023 to June 2024 compared to the 1951-1980 average. They chose this period to ensure the inclusion of the typical peak of El Niño events from November to January. They found that under moderate El Niño scenarios, record-breaking average surface temperatures are expected in the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines during this period. Under a strong El Niño scenario, record-breaking average surface temperatures are also predicted in the Caribbean Sea, the South China Sea, the Amazon, and Alaska regions.
The researchers also simulated the impact of El Niño on GMST during the same period and found that under moderate or strong El Niño scenarios, there is a 90% chance of breaking historical records. In a moderate scenario, the authors expect the GMST for 2023-24 to be 1.03 to 1.10°C higher than the 1951-1980 baseline average. In the strongest El Niño scenario, they predict the GMST to be 1.06 to 1.20°C higher than the average.
The researchers suggest that record-breaking average temperatures may challenge the current capacity of regions to cope with the consequences of overheating. They also point out that higher surface temperatures will significantly increase the occurrence of extreme weather events, including wildfires, tropical cyclones, and heatwaves, especially in coastal and marine areas where increased ocean heat capacity leads to prolonged climate conditions.
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