BEIJING, March 1 (Xinhua) - According to Springer Nature, in the early hours of March 1st Beijing time, an academic paper published in the open-access journal "Scientific Reports," led by Chinese scientists, suggests that from now until June 2024, several regions worldwide, including the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines, and the Caribbean, may experience record-breaking average surface temperatures due to the persistent El Niño phenomenon.
The lead author of the paper, Dr. Zhu Congwen from the China Meteorological Administration, stated that their modeling research, conducted in collaboration with colleagues from both China and abroad, indicates a high probability, around 90%, of record-breaking global average surface temperatures during moderate to strong El Niño events.
Dr. Zhu explained that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) primarily occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is one of the key drivers of global climate variability. Whether in the warm phase of El Niño or the cold phase of La Niña, both significantly influence global climate anomalies. During El Niño events, the release of heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean accelerates the rise in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the year. Even a slight increase in GMST could correspond to a significant rise in temperatures in certain regions and an increase in extreme events.
In this study, researchers from China, the United States, and Sweden simulated how the El Niño event from 2023 to 2024 would affect the average surface temperature from July 2023 to June 2024. They chose this period to ensure the inclusion of the typical peak of El Niño events from November to January. The research found that under moderate El Niño conditions, the GMST for 2023-2024 is projected to be 1.03°C–1.10°C higher compared to the average from 1951 to 1980, with the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines expected to experience record-breaking average surface temperatures during this period. Under strong El Niño conditions, the GMST is projected to be 1.06°C–1.20°C higher, with the Caribbean Sea, South China Sea, Amazon, and Alaska regions also expected to experience record-breaking average surface temperatures.
Dr. Zhu warned that the record-breaking average temperatures could challenge the current capacity of various regions to cope with climate change. The collaborative research team emphasized that higher surface temperatures would significantly increase the occurrence of extreme climate events, including wildfires, tropical cyclones, and heatwaves, especially as the high heat capacity of the ocean prolongs the duration of temperature anomalies in marine and coastal areas. (End)
