According to a memo shared with investors by analysts at UBS on February 17th, the delivery speed of NVIDIA AI GPUs has significantly accelerated. At the end of last year, customers had to wait 8-11 months, but now it only takes 3-4 months.
UBS points out that this situation is a double-edged sword.
On one hand, it indicates that NVIDIA and TSMC have greatly increased production capacity, particularly addressing bottlenecks in CoWoS packaging, enabling them to rapidly generate more revenue in the short term.
On the other hand, while clearing backlog orders, NVIDIA needs to secure more new orders, or else it risks revenue loss.
Additionally, due to export controls by the U.S. government, NVIDIA AI GPUs cannot be supplied to the Chinese market on a large scale, freeing up capacity for other orders.
UBS also believes that the shortened delivery cycle implies that short-term growth for NVIDIA AI GPUs may be nearing its peak, with subsequent growth potentially weakening.
Nevertheless, UBS has still raised its price target for NVIDIA to $850, up from around $725.
