According to a memo shared with investors by analysts at UBS on February 17th, the delivery speed of NVIDIA AI GPUs has significantly accelerated. While at the end of last year, customers had to wait for 8-11 months, now they only need to wait for 3-4 months.
UBS points out that this situation is a double-edged sword.
On one hand, it indicates that NVIDIA and TSMC have greatly improved their production capacity, especially by addressing the bottleneck issue in CoWoS packaging, which can quickly bring in more revenue in the short term.
On the other hand, while clearing the backlog of orders, NVIDIA needs to seek out more new orders, or else it could lead to revenue loss.
Additionally, due to export controls imposed by the U.S. government, NVIDIA AI GPUs cannot be supplied in large quantities to the Chinese market, thereby freeing up production capacity for other orders.
UBS also believes that the shortened delivery cycle implies that the short-term growth of NVIDIA AI GPUs has reached its peak, and subsequent growth may weaken.
Nevertheless, UBS has raised its price target for NVIDIA to $850—currently around $725.
